New Content - Implemented Level 11 Talisman Revamp

Some minor spading.

Conclusions
  • It looks like you need to clear out 80 protesters to open up the Zeppelin itself.
  • It looks like the combat rate is 80%.
  • It looks like the combat rate increases to 100% after opening up the Zeppelin. The semi-rare adventure still triggers and points you to a non-combat.

Data
  • I received 80 combats and 18 non-combats in between "Too Much Humanity" and "Not So Much With The Humanity".
  • I skipped all the non-combats.
  • I adventured for another 56 adventures after "Not So Much With The Humanity". The only non-combat I received was the semi-rare adventure.
 
I guess we'll consider it an 80% combat zone for simplicity, given most people will be exploring it whilst on the quest? You can also get the 'semi-rare' adventure with a clover also.
 
Darzil said:
Zeppelin protestor one has no vanishing clover message, so I've raised a bug report. I couldn't think of any other clover adventure that doesn't mention the clover vanishing.
Click to expand...

It's a known bug apparently, so hopefully we'll get a fix and be able to support it properly.
 
It seems that the combat rate for "A Mob of Zeppelin Protesters" is not 80% after all. The combat rate is actually 90% with a forced NC after 7 combats, so it is impossible to have 8 combats in a row.

Please change combat rate to 90% for $location[A Mob of Zeppelin Protesters].

Yeah, Darzil might very well have already read the conclusion yesterday and be planning to update KoLmafia, but I thought I'd post just in case he missed it.
 
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Well, I was mirroring the information from G-D. Though the first guy who originally claimed 80% now agrees that his data matches the conclusion of the second guy so there isn't a lot of disagreement.
 
Bale said:
Well, I was mirroring the information from G-D. Though the first guy who originally claimed 80% now agrees that his data matches the conclusion of the second guy so there isn't a lot of disagreement.
Click to expand...

As the original guy, I'll back this up. Looking over my data again, I can confirm that every time I hit 7 combats without seeing a NC, the next adventure was a NC. Removing those NCs from the data set gave me a combat rate closer to 90%. The data then looks like 80 combats and 11 non-combats, giving me a rate of 88%. It could be either 85% or 90%, but until one my of my accounts has access to a full mob, I won't be able to properly spade it with combat rate modifiers.
 
digitrev said:
As the original guy, I'll back this up. Looking over my data again, I can confirm that every time I hit 7 combats without seeing a NC, the next adventure was a NC. Removing those NCs from the data set gave me a combat rate closer to 90%. The data then looks like 80 combats and 11 non-combats, giving me a rate of 88%. It could be either 85% or 90%, but until one my of my accounts has access to a full mob, I won't be able to properly spade it with combat rate modifiers.
Click to expand...

You can't just take the data out without modifying it, I think. By excluding it you are saying that there is a 1- non-combat rate^N chance of not getting a non-combat in N turns (where N is 7 in this case), but that you are ignoring those data points. If I got the maths right, with a 95% base chance you are throwing away 70% of the datapoints that would exist without the forced non-combat, at 90% 48% of them, at 85% 32% of them, at 80% 21% of them and at 75% 13% of them.

I think you could look at the data and look at the chance of getting a non-combat after no other non-combat, after 1 combat, after 2 combats, after 3 combats, after 4 combats, after 5 combats and after 6 combats, then average those rates. Assuming there isn't an escalating chance over time (like Ninja Snowmen), I think that would be a valid method.
 
Darzil said:
You can't just take the data out without modifying it, I think. By excluding it you are saying that there is a 1- non-combat rate^N chance of not getting a non-combat in N turns (where N is 7 in this case), but that you are ignoring those data points. If I got the maths right, with a 95% base chance you are throwing away 70% of the datapoints that would exist without the forced non-combat, at 90% 48% of them, at 85% 32% of them, at 80% 21% of them and at 75% 13% of them.

I think you could look at the data and look at the chance of getting a non-combat after no other non-combat, after 1 combat, after 2 combats, after 3 combats, after 4 combats, after 5 combats and after 6 combats, then average those rates. Assuming there isn't an escalating chance over time (like Ninja Snowmen), I think that would be a valid method.
Click to expand...

If you reach the conclusion that there is a forced noncombat after 7 consecutive combats, then every encounter after 7 consecutive combats can be thrown out safely. I guess an escalating chance is ruled out by that analysis though.
 
lostcalpolydude said:
If you reach the conclusion that there is a forced noncombat after 7 consecutive combats, then every encounter after 7 consecutive combats can be thrown out safely. I guess an escalating chance is ruled out by that analysis though.
Click to expand...

Only if you treat the others as separate chances and take an average of those, I think.

I just ran a simulation through 50k turns, at various combat rates, assuming that after 7 consecutive combats the eight turn is a non-combat. With this the following rates would be observed if you remove no data :

95% -> observed rate 85%
90% -> observed rate 82-83%
85% -> observed rate 79%
80% -> observed rate 76%
75% -> observed rate 72%
 
Darzil said:
Absolutely, I was trying to think of ways to get the answer using existing data, rather than generating new data.
Click to expand...

Well, if you're interested in the existing data, here it is. Like I said, I'm going to try and tatter my way to a full and proper spading.

Code: 
Encounter: Too Much Humanity
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Fire Up Above
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Fire Up Above
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: This Looks Like a Good Bush for an Ambush
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Fire Up Above
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Fire Up Above
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: eagle
Encounter: lynyrd skinner
Encounter: Jefferson pilot
Encounter: Blue Oyster cultist
Encounter: Bench Warrant
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: fleet woodsman
Encounter: Not So Much With The Humanity
 
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Darzil said:
Only if you treat the others as separate chances and take an average of those, I think.

I just ran a simulation through 50k turns, at various combat rates, assuming that after 7 consecutive combats the eight turn is a non-combat. With this the following rates would be observed if you remove no data :

95% -> observed rate 85%
90% -> observed rate 82-83%
85% -> observed rate 79%
80% -> observed rate 76%
75% -> observed rate 72%
Click to expand...

I did the same, and I noticed something else that was interesting. If you throw out any NC that occurs after 7 combats, you get remarkably close to the actual rate. For the time being, I'm inclined to say the rate is 90%, but I'll have to check tomorrow to be sure.

75% -> observed @ 74.8%
80% -> observed @ 79.9%
85% -> observed @ 85.1%
90% -> observed @ 98.9%
95% -> observed @ 95.1%
 
Somehow when all the other monsters from this revamp were added, one was missed: The Frattlesnake
 
That probably has to do with the fact that no one that posts data anywhere has seen it, apparently. The item it drops isn't on the wiki or in mafia yet either.
 
OH! Well, that's easily fixed! I'll just ask Manuel about the snake and dig its item out of my session log from a few days ago.

The Frattlesnake
Atk: 160
Def: 160
HP: 175
Phylum: Beast
Element: Sleaze
Init: +50%
Drop: The Lacrosse Stick of Lacoronado (100% chance)
--------------------
7180 The Lacrosse Stick of Lacoronado 321891418 lacrosse.gif none q 0
# The Lacrosse Stick of Lacoronado
--------------------

It is found in the Frat House. The original version of the Frat House only.
 
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